Reports from Covid-19 Modelling Aotearoa


Our Covid-19 modelling influences policy decisions, so we make it publicly available as soon as we can. All of our published work is assessed by our fast and committed peer review team to enable a degree of scientific certainty within the parameters of rapid change.

Modelling Aotearoa New Zealand’s COVID-19 Protection Framework and the transition away from the elimination strategy

Covid-19 Aotearoa developed an age-structured model for the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 including the effects of vaccination, case isolation, contact tracing, border controls and population-wide control measures. We use this model to investigate how epidemic trajectories may respond to different control strategies, and to explore trade-offs between restrictions in the community and restrictions at the border.

FluTracking incidence calculation methods

This report details the methods used for calculating the estimated weekly incidence of Covid-19-like and influenza-like illness in Aotearoa New Zealand, using data from the FluTracking weekly survey.

Inter-regional movement and contagion risk analysis August 2021

We use a range of data sources and analytic approaches to estimate the number of movements between regions of Aotearoa and to give some estimates of the risk of transmission of Covid-19 to regions outside of Auckland, during the early stages of the August 2021 outbreak.

A Covid-19 vaccination model for Aotearoa New Zealand

We use a mathematical model to estimate the effect of Aotearoa New Zealand’s vaccine rollout on the potential spread and health impacts of Covid-19 and the implications for controlling border-related outbreaks.