This document presents the findings of sensitivity testing of a modelling assumption made in two previous documents that present advice given to the NZ Ministry of Health in August and September 2022:
- Estimating the effect of Covid Protection Framework policy scenarios on the effective reproduction number of COVID-19 in Aotearoa: August 2022
- Estimating the effect of changes in case isolation on the effective reproduction number of COVID-19 in Aotearoa: September 2022
The modelling in these reports assumed perfect intra-household isolation. When we replace this assumption with the assumption of no reduction in transmission within households, we find that our finding from (2) that “a large fraction of people taking some action leads to a smaller increase in Rt than a small fraction of people taking a highly effective action” is still valid, although the effect size is likely less strong.