Covid-19 Modelling Aotearoa
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Preliminary estimates of hospitalisation numbers for the August 2021 outbreak, assuming we stay in Alert Level 4

by Admin | 26 Oct 2021 | Contagion network modelling

Report provided 1 September 2021, this version published after internal peer review 15 October 2021 We use the contagion network model to project case numbers and thus hospital and critical care numbers for the current Auckland outbreak of August 2021, with current...

‘Phased transition’ to phase transition: The network consequences of reconnecting

by Admin | 22 Oct 2021 | Contagion network modelling

Report delivered 10 September 2021 As Aotearoa New Zealand, and specifically Auckland, responds to the ongoing outbreak of Covid-19 that began in August 2021, we seek to explain and explore how changes to Alert Level restrictions may impact on the network of...

Estimates of new onset of Covid-like illness, symptomatic population, and testing rates

by Admin | 18 Oct 2021 | Contagion network modelling

Using the FluTracking survey data for 2021 up until the week ending 29 August 2021, we can estimate the weekly incidence (new onset) of Covid19-like symptoms within different age groups and different parts of the country. We use this to produce an estimate of the...

Estimates of effects of changing Alert Levels for the August 2021 outbreak

by Admin | 18 Oct 2021 | Contagion network modelling

Report delivered 9 September 2021, this version compiled 15 October 2021. We use an individual-based, Aotearoa-specific Contagion Network Model (CNM) to simulate the spread of COVID-19 in the community for an outbreak comparable to that detected on 17 August 2021. The...

FluTracking incidence calculation methods

by Admin | 20 Sep 2021 | Contagion network modelling

This report details the methods used for calculating the estimated weekly incidence of COVID-19-like and influenza-like illness in Aotearoa New Zealand, using data from the FluTracking weekly survey. FluTracking is a participatory health surveillance system for...

Contagion network modelling in the first weeks of the August 2021 outbreak

by Admin | 16 Sep 2021 | Contagion network modelling

In the first weeks of the 2021 Auckland August Covid-19 outbreak, the contagion network team provided a number of reports to officials with estimates of the likely size of the outbreak and updates on the estimated effect of Alert Level interventions on curtailing...
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Recent Posts

  • Modelling the dynamics of infection, waning of immunity and re-infection with the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 in Aotearoa New Zealand
  • Estimating Covid-19 border arrival risk in Aotearoa New Zealand
  • A preliminary assessment of the potential impact of the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 in Aotearoa New Zealand
  • Effect of vaccination, border testing, and quarantine requirements on the risk of Covid-19 in New Zealand
  • Technical report: Modelling the August 2021 Covid-19 outbreak in New Zealand

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  • Branching process modelling
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"Covid-19 Modelling Aotearoa"
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Covid-19 Modelling Aotearoa
The University of Auckland | Accessibility | Copyright | Privacy | Disclaimer