Covid-19 Modelling Aotearoa
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Quantifying the effect of a change in case isolation settings

by Covid-19 Modelling Aotearoa | 20 Apr 2023 | Contagion network modelling, Equity and at-risk communities

Background This memo was provided to the NZ Ministry of Health on November 16th, 2022 in response to a request for rapid advice on November 15th, 2022. The memo presents results for specific scenarios of interest: case isolation of 7 days or 5 days with no...

Quantifying the impact of isolation period and the use of rapid antigen tests for confirmed COVID-19 cases

by Admin | 26 Aug 2022 | Contagion network modelling, News

New modelling by Covid-19 Modelling Aotearoa suggests that testing with Rapid Antigen Tests before ending isolation for confirmed cases of Covid-19 would significantly decrease the risk of onward transmission, while allowing many people to isolate for shorter periods....

Preliminary estimates of hospitalisation numbers for the August 2021 outbreak, assuming we stay in Alert Level 4

by Admin | 26 Oct 2021 | Contagion network modelling

Report provided 1 September 2021, this version published after internal peer review 15 October 2021 We use the contagion network model to project case numbers and thus hospital and critical care numbers for the current Auckland outbreak of August 2021, with current...

‘Phased transition’ to phase transition: The network consequences of reconnecting

by Admin | 22 Oct 2021 | Contagion network modelling

Report delivered 10 September 2021 As Aotearoa New Zealand, and specifically Auckland, responds to the ongoing outbreak of Covid-19 that began in August 2021, we seek to explain and explore how changes to Alert Level restrictions may impact on the network of...

Estimates of new onset of Covid-like illness, symptomatic population, and testing rates

by Admin | 18 Oct 2021 | Contagion network modelling

Using the FluTracking survey data for 2021 up until the week ending 29 August 2021, we can estimate the weekly incidence (new onset) of Covid19-like symptoms within different age groups and different parts of the country. We use this to produce an estimate of the...

Estimates of effects of changing Alert Levels for the August 2021 outbreak

by Admin | 18 Oct 2021 | Contagion network modelling

Report delivered 9 September 2021, this version compiled 15 October 2021. We use an individual-based, Aotearoa-specific Contagion Network Model (CNM) to simulate the spread of COVID-19 in the community for an outbreak comparable to that detected on 17 August 2021. The...
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Recent Posts

  • Commuter Count: Inferring Travel Patterns from Location Data
  • Quantifying the effect of a change in case isolation settings
  • Modelling Covid-19 dynamics in New Zealand August 2022 to February 2023
  • Modelling the effect of changes to the COVID-19 case isolation policy
  • Modelling the impact of the Omicron sub-variant BA.5 in New Zealand

Categories

  • Border risk
  • Branching process modelling
  • Contagion network modelling
  • Equity and at-risk communities
  • News
  • Ordinary differential equation modelling
  • Technical Report
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