by Admin | 8 Feb 2022 | Branching process modelling
Executive summary The results in this report are a preliminary assessment of the potential impact of Omicron in New Zealand and are subject to significant uncertainty. This modelling was carried out before the detection of the Omicron outbreak on 23 January 2022....
by Admin | 10 Nov 2021 | Branching process modelling
We use a stochastic branching process model to investigate the risk of border-related outbreaks of COVID-19 and strategies to mitigate this risk. In this paper we couple a simple model of quarantine and testing strategies for international travellers with a model for...
by Admin | 27 Oct 2021 | Branching process modelling
Executive summary We use a branching process model to simulate the Auckland August 2021 outbreak through to early January 2022, including the effects of increasing vaccine coverage by age group and time. Based on vaccination data and bookings for the Auckland metro...
by Admin | 23 Sep 2021 | Branching process modelling
Updated modelling exploring how high rates of vaccine coverage might reduce the health burden from COVID-19 if combined with moderate public health measures to reduce transmission of the virus. Aotearoa New Zealand is on track to vaccinate upwards of 80% of those aged...
by Admin | 7 Sep 2021 | Branching process modelling
Here are two technical reports in which we consider the epidemic course for the August 2021 cluster, detected on 17 August in Auckland, following the shift to Alert Level 4 restrictions in New Zealand, using a stochastic branching process model. On 17 August 2021 a...
by Admin | 30 Jun 2021 | Branching process modelling
We present two implementations of an age-structured model for Covid-19 spread in Aotearoa New Zealand with a partially vaccinated population. The first is a deterministic SEIR model, useful for considering population-level dynamics and questions about population...
