by kste821 | 8 Dec 2022 | Border risk, Branching process modelling, Contagion network modelling, Equity and at-risk communities
Abstract For the first 18 months of the Covid-19 pandemic, New Zealand used an elimination strategy to suppress community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to zero or very low levels. In late 2021, high vaccine coverage enabled the country to transition away from the...
by kste821 | 29 Nov 2022 | Branching process modelling
Abstract Epidemiological models range in complexity from relatively simple statistical models that make minimal assumptions about the variables driving epidemic dynamics to more mechanistic models that include effects such as vaccine-derived and infection-derived...
by Admin | 23 Aug 2022 | Branching process modelling
Executive summary The BA.5 Omicron sub-variant is able to spread more easily than the previously dominant BA.2 sub-variant due to its immune escape characteristics. This is a key driver of the second Omicron wave in New Zealand in July/August 2022. Updated modelling...
by Admin | 2 Jun 2022 | Branching process modelling
Executive summary Waning of infection-derived immunity means people become increasingly susceptible to being re-infected with SARS-CoV-2 over time. This waning creates the possibility of subsequent waves of infection, even after substantial population exposure, driven...
by Admin | 8 Feb 2022 | Branching process modelling
Executive summary The results in this report are a preliminary assessment of the potential impact of Omicron in New Zealand and are subject to significant uncertainty. This modelling was carried out before the detection of the Omicron outbreak on 23 January 2022....
by Admin | 10 Nov 2021 | Branching process modelling
We use a stochastic branching process model to investigate the risk of border-related outbreaks of COVID-19 and strategies to mitigate this risk. In this paper we couple a simple model of quarantine and testing strategies for international travellers with a model for...
