Covid-19 Modelling Aotearoa
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Effect of vaccination, border testing, and quarantine requirements on the risk of Covid-19 in New Zealand

by Admin | 10 Nov 2021 | Branching process modelling

We use a stochastic branching process model to investigate the risk of border-related outbreaks of COVID-19 and strategies to mitigate this risk. In this paper we couple a simple model of quarantine and testing strategies for international travellers with a model for...

Technical report: Modelling the August 2021 Covid-19 outbreak in New Zealand

by Admin | 27 Oct 2021 | Branching process modelling

Executive summary We use a branching process model to simulate the Auckland August 2021 outbreak through to early January 2022, including the effects of increasing vaccine coverage by age group and time. Based on vaccination data and bookings for the Auckland metro...

Preliminary estimates of hospitalisation numbers for the August 2021 outbreak, assuming we stay in Alert Level 4

by Admin | 26 Oct 2021 | Contagion network modelling

Report provided 1 September 2021, this version published after internal peer review 15 October 2021 We use the contagion network model to project case numbers and thus hospital and critical care numbers for the current Auckland outbreak of August 2021, with current...

‘Phased transition’ to phase transition: The network consequences of reconnecting

by Admin | 22 Oct 2021 | Contagion network modelling

Report delivered 10 September 2021 As Aotearoa New Zealand, and specifically Auckland, responds to the ongoing outbreak of Covid-19 that began in August 2021, we seek to explain and explore how changes to Alert Level restrictions may impact on the network of...

Estimates of new onset of Covid-like illness, symptomatic population, and testing rates

by Admin | 18 Oct 2021 | Contagion network modelling

Using the FluTracking survey data for 2021 up until the week ending 29 August 2021, we can estimate the weekly incidence (new onset) of Covid19-like symptoms within different age groups and different parts of the country. We use this to produce an estimate of the...
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Recent Posts

  • Using mechanistic model-based inference to understand and project epidemic dynamics with time-varying contact and vaccination rates
  • Quantifying the impact of isolation period and the use of rapid antigen tests for confirmed COVID-19 cases
  • Modelling the effects of Omicron sub-variant BA.5 in New Zealand
  • Modelling the dynamics of infection, waning of immunity and re-infection with the Omicron variant of SARS-CoV-2 in Aotearoa New Zealand
  • Estimating Covid-19 border arrival risk in Aotearoa New Zealand

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  • Border risk
  • Branching process modelling
  • Contagion network modelling
  • Equity and at-risk communities
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"Covid-19 Modelling Aotearoa"
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Covid-19 Modelling Aotearoa
The University of Auckland | Accessibility | Copyright | Privacy | Disclaimer