by Admin | 2 Jun 2022 | News
Executive summary Waning of infection-derived immunity means people become increasingly susceptible to being re-infected with SARS-CoV-2 over time. This waning creates the possibility of subsequent waves of infection, even after substantial population exposure, driven...
by Admin | 20 May 2022 | Border risk
The New Zealand Ministry of Health needs to assess the risk of Covid-19 infection among international travellers arriving in Aotearoa New Zealand, principally by air. The model described here assesses country level infection risk using daily infection rates among...
by Admin | 8 Feb 2022 | Branching process modelling
Executive summary The results in this report are a preliminary assessment of the potential impact of Omicron in New Zealand and are subject to significant uncertainty. This modelling was carried out before the detection of the Omicron outbreak on 23 January 2022....
by Admin | 10 Nov 2021 | Branching process modelling
We use a stochastic branching process model to investigate the risk of border-related outbreaks of COVID-19 and strategies to mitigate this risk. In this paper we couple a simple model of quarantine and testing strategies for international travellers with a model for...
by Admin | 27 Oct 2021 | Branching process modelling
Executive summary We use a branching process model to simulate the Auckland August 2021 outbreak through to early January 2022, including the effects of increasing vaccine coverage by age group and time. Based on vaccination data and bookings for the Auckland metro...