by Admin | 21 Oct 2020 | Branching process modelling
Executive summary We compare the economic costs of containing the Auckland August outbreak of COVID-19 using Alert Level 3 to those that might have been incurred from the use of Alert Level 4. We estimate the effectiveness of Alert Level 3 using data from the actual...
by Admin | 19 Oct 2020 | Contagion network modelling
Executive summary We simulate the late July/early August re-emergence and spread of Covid-19 in Aotearoa New Zealand. We use a stochastic, individual-based network model of all ~5 million individuals in Aotearoa, and run simulations for a period of 30 days. Based on...
by Admin | 14 Oct 2020 | Branching process modelling
This paper summarises the modelling advice provided to Cabinet during the August 2020 outbreak of Covid-19 in Auckland, as well as detailing the methods used to provide that advice. The actual values provided, particularly the probability of elimination and the...
by Admin | 15 Sep 2020 | Branching process modelling
Executive summary The effective reproduction number Reff measures the potential for Covid-19 to spread. If Reff is less than 1, new daily cases are likely to increase over time, if Reff is greater than 1, new daily cases will decrease over time. For the March-April...
by Admin | 4 Sep 2020 | Branching process modelling, Equity and at-risk communities
There is limited evidence as to how clinical outcomes of Covid-19 including fatality rates may vary by ethnicity. We aim to estimate inequities in infection fatality rates (IFR) in Aotearoa New Zealand by ethnicity. We combine existing demographic and health data for...
