Covid-19 Modelling Aotearoa
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Estimates of effects of changing Alert Levels for the August 2021 outbreak

by Admin | 18 Oct 2021 | Contagion network modelling

Report delivered 9 September 2021, this version compiled 15 October 2021. We use an individual-based, Aotearoa-specific Contagion Network Model (CNM) to simulate the spread of COVID-19 in the community for an outbreak comparable to that detected on 17 August 2021. The...

FluTracking incidence calculation methods

by Admin | 20 Sep 2021 | Contagion network modelling

This report details the methods used for calculating the estimated weekly incidence of COVID-19-like and influenza-like illness in Aotearoa New Zealand, using data from the FluTracking weekly survey. FluTracking is a participatory health surveillance system for...

Contagion network modelling in the first weeks of the August 2021 outbreak

by Admin | 16 Sep 2021 | Contagion network modelling

In the first weeks of the 2021 Auckland August Covid-19 outbreak, the contagion network team provided a number of reports to officials with estimates of the likely size of the outbreak and updates on the estimated effect of Alert Level interventions on curtailing...

Inter-regional movement and contagion risk analysis August 2021

by Admin | 15 Sep 2021 | Contagion network modelling

We use a range of data sources and analytic approaches to estimate the number of movements between regions of Aotearoa and to give some estimates of the risk of transmission of Covid-19 to regions outside of Auckland, during the early stages of the August 2021...

Exploring Covid-19 transmission risk and vulnerability through the Aotearoa Co-incidence Network (ACN)

by Admin | 3 Sep 2021 | Contagion network modelling

The Aotearoa Co-incidence Network (ACN) provides a highly insightful tool to explore the manner in which the regions of Aotearoa New Zealand are connected to each other through co-incidence of individuals at workplaces and schools. We used data from Aotearoa New...

Covid-19 network modelling trilogy: Elimination, Alert Level 2.5 and other non-pharmaceutical interventions

by Admin | 26 Jul 2021 | Contagion network modelling

The reports ‘Network modelling of elimination strategy pillars: Prepare for it, Stamp it out’; ‘Alert Level 2.5 is insufficient for suppression or elimination of Covid-19 community outbreak’; and ‘Contagion network modelling of effectiveness for a range of...
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